It's a weird, confusing, exciting (?) time to be a Sounder
Are we good? Are we really close to being good? Are we on the cusp of a death spiral?
It would be wonderful to be in a place where the Sounders could beat one of the best teams in the league 4-0, and I could crack a beer, say “damn right we did!” and not think too hard about it.
But I am not in that place. Rather, I’m in a place of confusion and mystery. Is the thing I saw the thing that I saw? Or is it something else? It’s a strange feeling, and one I have around most aspects of the team these days.
The caveats for Saturday’s win in Columbus are obvious. The Crew were down their top scorer, two defenders and two goalkeepers to international duty. A third goalkeeper is hurt. So when their backup backup backup keeper got a red card, they turned to their backup backup backup backup, who is a defender.
It was all very fun and silly. If you told me beforehand that by the 75th minute Lower.com Field would be half-empty, I could have guessed a hundred things before a Sounders blowout win. Heavy rain, lions escaped the zoo armed with lasers, excessive flatulence — all that seemed more plausible than the Sounders (1.48 pts/game coming in) absolutely housing the Crew (1.96 pts/game) at their place.
But house them we did, and hot-streaking we are. Are we? I don’t know.
Are We Good?
The Sounders are 8-1-2 over the last 11 games. Sounds awesome! Wait, seven of those wins were against teams in the bottom half of the standings? And the eighth was against Flappy Hands McGillicuddy in goal?
We looked pretty good in the Leagues Cup, but is the Leagues Cup real? Are we even sure that happened? And does any tournament matter if it just ends in a loss to LAFC?
I’m very confident we’re playoff-bound and that we won’t look out of place there, but it’s hard to imagine a 2016-like run to glory. I absolutely can’t rule it out, though, given that we have a strong defense, lots of talent, “guys who know how to win,” and a healthy-and-improving Pedro de la Vega (which, btw: yay!).
But even if my heart says we have that trophy-hunting mentality within us, my head says otherwise. Unlike last year, when we created so much and just couldn’t finish, this season our expected goals and goals allowed (37.5 and 32.9, entering Saturday) are almost dead-on our actuals (37 and 32). Our fifth-place position might be kinda exactly where we deserve to be.
Then again, we wasted our first nine games of the season (1-3-5). Those almost entirely do not matter in the MLS format, so maybe we’re just smart or something? I dunno.
What Kind of Rebuild are We In?
It’s not just the results that are a bit hard to parse — where do we go from here? Everyone knows a roster rebuild is coming as we move on from the Nico/Raul era, and Raul is on his way out.
But are we actually launching a new era? The guys we’d consider “core” are all 28 and up: Stefan Frei (38), Joao Paulo (33), Yeimar (32), Albert Rusnak (30), Jordan Morris (29), Cristian Roldan (29), Danny Musovski (lol) and Alex Roldan (at 28, a scant 13 months younger than his brother — props to Mama Roldan).
I can’t tell if this is a team with a strong cast that’s one or two signings away from title contention, or a club that will be painstakingly killing off its aging heroes one by one over the next few years, and needing to get every single replacement decision right along the way.
But how old is 30, anyway? Not everyone experiences that the same way, and it varies by position. But if we’re dreaming of another cycle among the league’s best, it would be nice to have more youth in our backbone. We have 12 guys who have played more than 1,000 minutes. Only three are under 27: Jackson Ragen (25), Josh Atencio (22) and Obed Vargas (19). Seven are 29 and up.
Looking at the top of the table, here’s how many players age 26-and-under these teams have with more than 1,000 minutes to their names: Columbus has nine, the Galaxy have seven, and Cincy and LAFC each have four. Even Inter Miami, who I associate with damn-near 40-year-olds, has five. Those rosters are a step ahead on the age curve.
In prime-age guys like Andrew Thomas (26) and Ragen, we have more runway if we can keep them. De la Vega (23) is our clear investment for the future (and to be fair, the club would have expected him to be over that 1,000-minute mark).
Paul Rothrock (25), Atencio, Georgi Minoungou (22), Danny Leyva (21), Cody Baker (20) and Reed Baker-Whiting (19) all have potential. How many of them will be MLS Cup-caliber starters, as the league continues to raise the bar for talent? No idea.
Vargas seems like a good bet for that, but Everyone Who Knows seems pretty convinced we’re preparing to sell him. (Also, I feel like I should type Nouhou somewhere in here, so…Nouhou. But I’m confused enough right now, so I can’t even go here.)
Again, are we one big attacking signing away? We just might be. Are we going to spend the next three years watching all of our favorite players finish mid-table and grumble on Instagram about being disrespected by the club? I sure hope not, but the margins feel thin.
What Should We Do Up Top?
One of the biggest questions around our rebuild comes at forward. Is Morris the central striker of the future, or should we go sign a No. 9?
Jordan is spending more and more time there, and with 11 goals and 2 assists, he’s having his best season since 2020 (10 and 7), which was his best ever in terms of goals+assists. It’s looking very possible he’ll break his single-season goals record of 12, set in his 2016 debut.
Ah, but nine of those 11 goals are against bottom-half teams, and a 10th came against 10-man Columbus and Flappy Hands. And pre-Flaps, with the game at full strength, he pulled a 1v1 chance wide after a Rothrock pass that was so good, we should be petitioning the league office for a Rothrock assist anyway.
And here’s the thing with Jordan: he’s a big-bodied winger known for blistering pace and somewhat-spotty finishing. Speed tends to tail off with age, making him theoretically less viable on the wing every year. So do you build your roster around him as the central goal-scorer? Or do you leave him wide where he might lose what makes him great? If he wasn’t our hometown hero, would we be looking to sell him?
We’ll have a Designated Player slot open when Raul leaves. Maybe another if Rusnak can be re-signed as a non-DP (or if he leaves). I think I like the idea of signing a killer 9, flanked by Jordan and Pepo. But then you might have to be prepared for some tough decisions about Morris’ role in the medium term, and that will be tricky.
Aaaaand there’s the midfield, too.
JP is 33 and out of contract after this year. He started 28/34 games in 2021, missed almost all of 2022, and then started 30/34 last season. This year, 16 starts out of 28.
I love the man, and I’d want him on the team schooling up the youngins. I don’t know his coaching aspirations, but sign me up for that, too. So I vote to keep, but we need to add strength there and plan for fewer and fewer minutes from him.
Cristian Roldan shifting inside would help. Vargas staying would too. If he goes, we need at least one veteran addition who scares people.
And what about Rusnak? Sitting on eight goals and 10 assists, he might crack Nico’s best year in Seattle (8 and 12 in 2018), and you’d have to go back to the bombastic 2014 season with Oba and Deuce to find anything better.
But here we go again: if you exclude the three goals he scored against Flappy on Saturday, Rusnak has just one goal (vs. RSL) and one assist (vs. Houston) against teams in the top half of their conference.
I think these caveats can only go so far. Bad teams are bad, and they’re easier to score against. But our ratios feel a little skewed the wrong direction, and when guys like Denis Bouanga seem to score every. single. f-ing. time. we play them, it feels like we need a guy like that.
So how much is Rusnak worth to us? And is he anyone else’s free agent DP? I have to say, I really really like some of the flashes I’ve seen of he and Pepo working together. Those two, with runners and finishers around them, could really be a handful. But how often? And for how long?
If you’re thinking, “Dammit, Sammy’s Blowhole! Just let me enjoy the lulz of that win!” then I hear you.
We’re certainly not in a disaster scenario here. Wins are better than losses. Goals and assists are great, no matter who they’re against. It’s nice to have strong veteran players.
But it just feels…a bit tenuous.
Here’s hoping we catch lightning in a bottle down the stretch again. And that we all — you, me, Jordan Morris — age gracefully aided by deeply restful nights and healthy diets. And that we sign fewer Hebers, Musovskis and Chus and more Dempseys, Obas, Nicos and Rauls.
And that soon, we can say “yea, we’re definitely real good” and leave it at that.